Chapter 3 Contemporary South Asia

What Is South Asia?

The relationship between India and Pakistan, exemplified by the blend of intense rivalry during a cricket match and genuine goodwill towards visiting fans, symbolises the complex dynamics of South Asian affairs. The region is characterised by the coexistence of competition, goodwill, hope, despair, suspicion, and trust.

The term **‘South Asia’** typically encompasses seven countries: **Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka**. The region's geography, marked by the Himalayas in the north and the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal to the south, west, and east, provides a natural insulation that has contributed to its distinct linguistic, social, and cultural identity. While the northern and southern boundaries are relatively clear, the eastern and western borders are less defined, and countries like Afghanistan and Myanmar are sometimes included in regional discussions, though China is generally not considered part of the region.

Despite immense diversity in every aspect, South Asia is also considered a single geopolitical space. The countries within South Asia have varied political systems. India and Sri Lanka have maintained democratic systems since gaining independence from Britain, despite facing numerous challenges and limitations. India's democracy has endured throughout its independent history, as has Sri Lanka's.

Pakistan and Bangladesh have experienced periods of both civilian and military rule. Bangladesh has remained a democracy in the post-Cold War era. Pakistan began the post-Cold War period with democratic governments under Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif but experienced a military coup in 1999, returning to civilian rule only in 2008.

Nepal was a constitutional monarchy for many years, transitioning to a democratic republic in 2008 after the monarchy was abolished. The experiences of Bangladesh and Nepal suggest that democracy is increasingly becoming an accepted norm in South Asia.

The region's smallest countries have also seen democratic shifts. Bhutan became a constitutional monarchy in 2008, evolving into a multi-party democracy under the king's leadership. The Maldives, previously a Sultanate, became a republic in 1968 and introduced a multi-party system in 2005, with the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) winning the 2018 elections.

Despite the inconsistent record of democratic practice across the region, a common aspiration for democracy exists among the people. Surveys indicate widespread support for democracy in the five largest South Asian countries, with ordinary citizens, regardless of wealth or religion, viewing democracy positively and preferring it over other forms of government. This challenges the earlier belief that democracy thrives only in prosperous nations and highlights the unique contribution of the South Asian experience to the global understanding of democracy.

Chart showing selected indicators for South Asia (Vertical Table Format):

The Military And Democracy In Pakistan

After its first constitution was framed, Pakistan's political history was marked by instability and periods of military rule. General Ayub Khan seized power and later got himself elected, but popular dissatisfaction led to his resignation. General Yahya Khan followed with another military takeover. During Yahya's rule, Pakistan faced the Bangladesh crisis, leading to a war with India in 1971 and the secession of East Pakistan as Bangladesh.

Following the 1971 war, an elected government led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power (1971-1977) but was overthrown by General Zia-ul-Haq in 1977. A pro-democracy movement in the 1980s paved the way for a return to elected government in 1988, led by Benazir Bhutto. Pakistani politics then saw competition between the Pakistan People's Party and the Muslim League.

This democratic phase ended in 1999 with another military coup led by General Pervez Musharraf, who removed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and later became President. Pakistan remained under army rule, although elections were sometimes held to project a democratic image. Since 2008, Pakistan has been governed by democratically elected leaders.

Several factors have hindered the establishment of stable democracy in Pakistan. The dominant influence of the **military, clergy, and landowning aristocracy** has contributed to the frequent overthrow of elected governments. Pakistan's ongoing conflict with India has also empowered pro-military groups, who often criticise political parties and democracy as detrimental to national security, justifying military intervention. Despite the challenges, a strong pro-democracy sentiment, a relatively free press, and an active human rights movement exist in Pakistan.

The lack of consistent international support for democratic rule in Pakistan, with the US and other Western countries sometimes supporting military rule for their own interests (fear of global Islamic terrorism and nuclear arsenal falling into wrong hands), has further enabled the military's dominance.

Democracy In Bangladesh

Bangladesh was East Pakistan from 1947 to 1971, formed from partitioned areas of Bengal and Assam. People in this region resented the dominance of West Pakistan and the imposition of Urdu, leading to protests for fair representation in administration and political power and against perceived unfair treatment of Bengali culture and language.

Sheikh Mujib-ur Rahman led the struggle for autonomy in East Pakistan. His Awami League won all East Pakistan seats and a majority in the proposed assembly in the 1970 elections. However, the West Pakistan-dominated government refused to convene the assembly, leading to Mujib's arrest and a brutal crackdown by the Pakistani army, resulting in thousands of deaths and large-scale migration to India, creating a refugee crisis.

India supported the independence movement in East Pakistan, providing financial and military aid. This culminated in a war between India and Pakistan in December 1971, leading to the surrender of Pakistani forces in East Pakistan and the birth of independent Bangladesh.

Bangladesh drafted a constitution based on secularism, democracy, and socialism. However, in 1975, Sheikh Mujib amended the constitution to introduce a presidential system and abolish all parties except his own. This led to tensions and his assassination in a military uprising in August 1975.

Military rule followed under Ziaur Rahman, who formed the Bangladesh National Party and won elections in 1979. His assassination led to another military takeover under Lt Gen H. M. Ershad. Popular protests for democracy, particularly led by students, forced Ershad to step down in 1990. Multi-party elections were held in 1991, and Bangladesh has operated a representative democracy since then.

Bangladesh's Grameen Bank, a microfinance organisation providing small loans to the poor without requiring collateral, is a notable example of a successful approach to poverty reduction that could potentially be adapted in other regions, including India. Its focus on empowering the poor through credit and community support has gained international recognition.

Monarchy And Democracy In Nepal

Nepal, historically a Hindu kingdom and then a constitutional monarchy, saw ongoing demands for a more open and responsive government from political parties and the public. The king, with the army's support, maintained control and limited democratic expansion.

Following a strong pro-democracy movement, the king accepted a new democratic constitution in 1990. However, democratic governments faced instability. In the 1990s, Maoists gained influence and launched an armed struggle against the monarchy and elite, leading to conflict with the king's forces. For a time, Nepal experienced a triangular conflict between monarchists, democrats, and Maoists.

In 2002, the king dissolved parliament and dismissed the government, ending limited democracy. In April 2006, massive nationwide pro-democracy protests, led by the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), Maoists, and social activists, forced the king to restore the House of Representatives. This largely non-violent movement was a major victory for pro-democracy forces.

Nepal's transition to democracy is nearing completion. It formed a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. While some favoured retaining a nominal monarchy, Maoists agreed to suspend armed struggle but pushed for radical social and economic restructuring in the constitution, which not all SPA parties supported. Suspicion of India's role in Nepal's future also existed among some groups. In 2008, Nepal became a democratic republic after abolishing the monarchy and adopted a new constitution in 2015.

Ethnic Conflict And Democracy In Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has maintained a democratic system since its independence in 1948 but faced a significant challenge from **ethnic conflict**. Politics has been dominated by forces representing the majority Sinhala community, who were hostile to the large Tamil population that had migrated from India. Sinhala nationalists opposed granting ‘concessions’ to Tamils, asserting Sri Lanka belonged solely to the Sinhala people.

This neglect of Tamil concerns fueled militant Tamil nationalism. From 1983, the **Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)** engaged in armed struggle for a separate Tamil state (‘Tamil Eelam’). At its peak, the LTTE controlled parts of northeastern Sri Lanka.

The conflict, involving people of Indian origin, led to pressure on the Indian government from Tamil people in India to protect the interests of Sri Lankan Tamils. India attempted negotiations with Sri Lanka. In 1987, India directly intervened, signing an accord with Sri Lanka and sending troops (Indian Peace Keeping Force - IPKF) to stabilise relations. However, the IPKF got involved in fighting the LTTE and faced opposition from Sri Lankans who viewed India's presence as interference. The IPKF withdrew in 1989 without achieving its objectives.

The crisis continued violently, though international actors facilitated negotiations. The armed conflict ended in 2009 with the military defeat of the LTTE. Despite the conflict, Sri Lanka has achieved considerable economic growth and high human development levels. It was among the first developing countries to control population growth, the first in the region to liberalise its economy, and maintained a high per capita GDP throughout the civil war. Despite internal conflict, it has preserved its democratic political system.

India-Pakistan Conflicts

The post-Cold War era has not brought an end to conflicts and tensions in South Asia, particularly between India and Pakistan. Their relationship has been marked by ongoing disputes since Partition.

The most prominent conflict is over the fate of **Kashmir**. Both countries became embroiled in a dispute immediately after Partition, leading to wars in **1947-48 and 1965**, which failed to resolve the issue. The 1947-48 war resulted in the division of the province along the Line of Control (LoC). India won a decisive war in 1971, but Kashmir remained unsettled.

Conflicts also involve strategic issues like control of the **Siachen glacier** and the **arms race**. This race escalated in the 1990s with both countries acquiring **nuclear weapons** (India in 1998 at Pokhran, Pakistan shortly after in the Chagai Hills). While nuclearisation has reduced the likelihood of full-scale war, mutual suspicion persists.

India accuses Pakistan of supporting **Kashmiri militants** and aiding **pro-Khalistani militants** (1985-95). India's intelligence agency alleges Pakistan's ISI is involved in anti-India activities via Bangladesh and Nepal. Pakistan, in turn, blames India and its agencies for fomenting trouble in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. (Cartoon depicts Indo-Pak negotiations).

Disputes also involve **sharing of river waters**, particularly the Indus basin. The **Indus Waters Treaty (1960)**, mediated by the World Bank, has survived conflicts but minor differences over interpretation and water use persist. Disagreements exist over the demarcation line in **Sir Creek**, with implications for controlling sea resources. India and Pakistan continue negotiations on these various issues.

India And Its Other Neighbours

India, due to its size and central location, shares borders with most South Asian countries and often faces complex relationships with its smaller neighbours, marked by a mix of cooperation and disagreement.

India and Bangladesh: Differences include sharing Ganga and Brahmaputra river waters, illegal immigration to India (denied by Bangladesh), alleged support for anti-Indian fundamentalist groups, refusal to allow Indian troops transit to Northeast India, and decisions regarding natural gas exports to India (or transit via Bangladesh). Bangladesh has accused India of behaving like a regional bully, encouraging rebellion in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, and being unfair in trade and water sharing. Boundary disputes were also unresolved for a long time. Despite differences, cooperation exists on disaster management and environmental issues. Economic relations and border dispute resolution (enclave exchange in 2015) have improved ties. Bangladesh is part of India's 'Look East' (now 'Act East') policy, aiming to connect with Southeast Asia.

India and Nepal: A unique treaty allows citizens to travel and work visa-free. However, trade disputes have occurred. India has expressed displeasure over Nepal's close ties with China and alleged inaction against anti-Indian elements. Indian security agencies see the Maoist movement in Nepal as a threat linked to Naxalite groups in India. Many in Nepal feel India interferes in internal affairs, has designs on their water resources and hydroelectricity, and restricts their access to the sea. Despite differences, relations are stable, with cooperation in trade, science, resource management, and electricity generation. Consolidation of democracy in Nepal is hoped to improve ties.

India and Sri Lanka: Difficulties mainly stem from the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka, as Indian leaders and citizens are concerned about the plight of Tamils. Since the 1987 military intervention, India prefers a policy of disengagement from Sri Lanka's internal troubles. A free trade agreement has strengthened ties, and India provided aid in post-tsunami reconstruction.

India and Bhutan: India shares a special relationship with Bhutan with no major conflicts. Bhutan's efforts against guerrillas and militants from Northeast India operating in its territory have aided India. India is involved in hydroelectric projects and is Bhutan's main source of development aid.

India and the Maldives: Ties remain warm. India responded quickly to Maldives' request for help against Tamil mercenaries in 1988. India has contributed to the island's economic development, tourism, and fisheries.

Overall, India faces suspicion from smaller neighbours due to its size and power, who fear Indian dominance. India, in turn, feels exploited by neighbours and concerned about political instability potentially allowing outside powers influence. This dynamic is a key feature of intra-regional relations.

Peace And Cooperation

Despite conflicts, South Asian states recognise the importance of cooperation. The **South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)**, founded in **1985**, is a major initiative for multilateral cooperation. However, SAARC has faced limited success due to persistent political differences.

SAARC members signed the **South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)** agreement in 2004, which came into effect in 2006, aiming to lower trade tariffs and create a free trade zone. The idea behind SAFTA is that increased free trade could foster better political cooperation.

However, some neighbours fear SAFTA is a way for India to dominate their markets and influence their politics. India believes SAFTA offers genuine economic benefits for all and that increased trade facilitates political cooperation. Some in India feel SAFTA is less valuable given existing bilateral agreements.

While Indo-Pakistan relations are often characterised by conflict, efforts to manage tensions and build peace exist, including confidence-building measures, collaborations between social activists, leader summits, opening bus routes, and increased trade and visas (though the situation has fluctuated recently).

Outside powers and events influence South Asia. China and the US are key players. Sino-Indian relations have improved, but China's ties with Pakistan remain sensitive for India. US involvement in South Asia has increased post-Cold War, often acting as a moderator in India-Pakistan relations. Economic reforms in India and Pakistan have deepened US economic participation. The large South Asian diaspora in the US and the region's population/markets give America stakes in regional security.

Ultimately, the future of South Asia as a conflict-prone zone or a cooperative regional bloc depends more on the people and governments of the region than on external powers. (Cartoons depict different perspectives on outside powers' roles).